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During the Francis papacy, the role of women in the church emerged as a pressing priority, with Catholics across the globe calling for change.

The Argentine pontiff listened, breaking some important glass ceilings in the Vatican when it came to appointing female leaders to senior positions. He chose to make gradual changes that, to the outside may have seemed like small steps, but were huge leaps to those on the inside.

The pope appointed the first woman leader of a department in the church’s central administration and the first female president of the office governing the Vatican City State. Francis also chose the first women to sit at the board level in the church’s central administration, including at the influential department for choosing bishops.

By 2023, 10 years into his pontificate, the percentage of women in the Vatican workforce had risen from 19.2 to 23.4%. More broadly, Francis gave women the power to vote for the first time at a major global gathering of bishops, known as a synod, and formally opened up non-ordained ministry roles as he sought to increase participation.

On Holy Thursday last year he broke with tradition by travelling to a female prison in Rome to wash the feet of 12 women prisoners. It was the first time a pontiff had only washed the feet of women in the annual ceremony that emphasizes humility.

But while the pope made some landmark reforms, many will be hoping that his successor moves further, and faster, and there was sometimes sharp criticism of his stance on the role of women in society.

Kim Daniels, the director of Georgetown University’s Initiative on Catholic Social Thought and Public Life and a Vatican adviser on communication, said the pope had “made significant strides towards greater inclusion of women in church decision-making” and that his reforms to broaden participation would be key to his legacy.

The lack of opportunity for women in the church is likely to come into sharp focus during the forthcoming papal conclave: Only members of the all-male body which is the College of Cardinals will vote on who will become the next pope.

It highlights a wider concern that Catholics across the world have raised in recent years: That while women frequently make up a majority in the pews on Sunday, they are scarcely represented at the church’s decision-making levels. Although lay people are increasingly more involved in church administration, it is primarily bishops and priests who make final decisions.

The problem is exacerbated by the fact that women are on the front lines of the church’s work on the ground, with nuns providing healthcare and education in developing countries and plenty of women leading Catholic schools and universities.

On the question of female involvement in a conclave, some have argued that women could be made cardinals, given the role of a cardinal is primarily to advise a pope and elect his successor.

Ordination questions

Sister Christine Schenk, an American nun, author and founder of international reform-focused group “FutureChurch,” said it was time to give a “deliberative voice” to women and lay people at “every level of the church,” adding that if the same model of electing a pope remains in place, “we need as many female cardinals as male cardinals at the conclave.”

A more realistic possibility in the short term is allowing women to once again become deacons, an ordained ministry distinct from the priesthood. Deacons can witness marriages, perform baptisms and preach during Mass. Those in favor point to evidence for female deacons in scripture and their presence in the early church right up until the Middle Ages.

Women deacons could also bolster the church’s presence in schools, hospitals and prisons, along with providing leaders for Catholic communities. Church leaders in the Amazon, where priests are in short supply, raised the question at a 2019 synod, calling on the pope to “promote and confer ministries for men and women in an equitable manner.” A 2024 synod concluding document, approved by the pope, said that the question of ordaining women as deacons should remain an “open” question.

To that end, several Vatican commissions were set up study the question of female deacons were established by Francis, although no findings were never made public.

Francis maintained the ban on women’s ordination as priests and deacons, something which disappointed those keen to see women in more visible church leadership roles, but insisted that decision-making and leadership doesn’t depend on whether someone is ordained. He repeatedly stated that the church is female and asked for theologians to help in trying to “de-masculinize” it.

Centuries of misogyny

Significantly, a live debate in the church about the role of women is being allowed to take place. Schenk described it as the most impactful shift during the Francis pontificate, ending the marginalization of “Catholics who wish to discuss full inclusion of women in every aspect of church ministry and decision-making.”

“The question Francis looked at is how to get more people involved in the work of the church, in as many ways and places as possible. That is why he appointed women to senior roles in the Vatican,” said Hofstra University Professor Phyllis Zagano, a member of the first commission on female deacons.

“On the question of women deacons, Francis was trying to deal with centuries of misogyny that misunderstood the role of women in the church and society. The synod process he started tried to get the church away from a male-only perspective and to look at women, rather than as a problem to be solved, but as able to be fully involved in the church’s work. Restoring women to the ordained diaconate reinforces the trajectory the church has been on.”

Despite the various ways Francis initiated reforms and made appointments, there is still a long way to go until women are given greater roles and responsibility in the church. The next pope is likely to find this topic right at the top of his in-tray.

“Previously the Vatican – indeed many, if not most, prelates – were leery of even using the words ‘women’ and ‘ministry’ in the same sentence,” said Schenk. “Now such issues are being openly discussed – something long overdue and a sign of newfound strength and maturity in a church that no longer fears discerning (and) discussing changes in how we walk together as the People of God.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that his country has regained control of Kursk, the border region where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive last year, though Ukraine’s army says fighting continues.

“The Kyiv regime’s adventure has completely failed,” Putin said Saturday, congratulating the Russian forces that he said defeated the Ukrainian military in the region in what would be a symbolic boost for Moscow at a crucial point in the war.

But the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said in a Telegram post that Putin’s claim about the end of hostilities in Kursk was “not true.”

“The defensive operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the designated areas in Kursk region continues. The operational situation is difficult, but our units continue to hold their positions and perform their assigned tasks,” the Telegram post said.

Ukraine launched its shock incursion into Kursk in August, swiftly capturing territory in what was the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II.

Since then, Russia, with support from North Korean soldiers, has been fighting to oust Ukraine’s forces from its borders, while Kyiv had poured precious resources into holding onto its territory there, with the view of using it as a key bargaining chip in any peace talks. The operation was also launched to relieve pressure from the embattled eastern frontline.

In his address, Putin said recapturing Kursk “creates conditions for further successful actions of our troops in other important areas of the front.”

In a post on Telegram, Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, thanked the North Korean soldiers, praising their “high professionalism, steadfastness, courage and heroism in battle.”

Ukrainian officials and Western intelligence reports found that about 12,000 North Korean soldiers had been sent to fight in Russia.

If Putin’s claims are true, hopes of using Kursk as a bargaining counter are now gone and Ukraine’s retreat has the potential to dent Kyiv’s political clout as well as its military’s morale after three years of war and with intense efforts underway towards finding peace.

Though the US has attempted to broker peace talks between Ukraine and Russia over recent months, tensions between the leaders of the three countries have meant that very little has come to fruition.

Another whirlwind week of diplomacy saw US President Donald Trump accuse Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of making it “so difficult to settle this war” for refusing to accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea but later saying Russia and Ukraine were “very close to a deal.”

On Saturday morning, at the funeral of the late Pope Francis in the Vatican, Zelensky briefly met with Trump for talks on potential peace negotiations. A White House spokesperson called the meeting “productive,” while Zelensky thanked Trump for the meeting, writing on X that it “has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.”

This story has been updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A senior Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo early Saturday for talks with Egyptian officials aimed at brokering a ceasefire agreement, according to a statement by Hamas.

The delegation, led by Chairman of the Hamas Leadership Council Muhammad Darwish, includes other key leaders, among them Khaled Meshaal, Khalil al-Hayya, Zaher Jabarin, and Eng. Nizar Awadallah.

“The delegation began meetings with Egyptian officials to discuss Hamas’s vision for a ceasefire and an end to the war and a prisoner exchange based on a comprehensive deal,” Hamas said in the written statement on Saturday.

According to the statement, the talks will also address the impact of what Hamas describes as Israel’s “starvation tactics” against Palestinians in Gaza and the urgent need to deliver humanitarian aid, food, and medical supplies to the besieged territory. Israel imposed a complete humanitarian blockade on Gaza on March 2, stopping food, medicine, and more from entering the besieged enclave.

“Israel only reacts to offers passed on by the mediators,” the source said.

The head of Mossad, David Barnea, was in Doha, Qatar, earlier this week, for ceasefire talks. So far, there has been no clear indication of a significant breakthrough.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump said he had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “We’ve got to be good to Gaza.” Taking questions on the way to Italy, Trump said, “there’s a very big need for medicine, food and medicine. We’re taking care of it.”

The president, whose administration has unapologetically backed Israel, offered no details about what steps the US was taking to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.

“The coming days are going to be critical,” said Jonathan Whitall on Saturday from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Gaza. “Today, people are not surviving in Gaza. Those that aren’t being killed by bombs and bullets are slowly dying.” One day earlier, the World Food Programme said it had run out food stocks in Gaza.

Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have made clear that the humanitarian blockade is part of a pressure campaign against Hamas, along with Israel’s increased bombardment of Gaza in order to destroy Hamas and bring back the remaining 59 Israeli hostages.

Earlier this month, Israel put forward a ceasefire proposal that called for a disarmament of Gaza without guaranteeing an end to the war, which violates two of Hamas’ red lines.

Since Israeli resumed its war in Gaza on March 18, more than 2,111 Palestinians have been killed, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Five people have been killed and more than 700 injured in a huge explosion at the port of Bandar Abbas in southwestern Iran, according to official Iranian media.

The head of the Iranian emergency services said four people had died in the blast. A spokesperson for the emergency services earlier said 516 had been injured.

A video distributed by the Mehr news agency showed surveillance footage of the moment of the explosion, which appears to have occurred in a warehouse at the port. Other footage showed helicopters dropping water at the site of the fire ignited by the explosion.

Debris was spread over a wide area and many buildings at the port complex were badly damaged, according to state media. Windows within a radius of several kilometers were shattered, they said.

Some reports said people were trapped in the wreckage of a building that was reduced to rubble.

The region’s governor, Mohammad Ashouri Taziani, said injured people were being transferred to Bandar Abbas medical centers and the fire had been contained. The port has been closed and maritime operations suspended, according to state media.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered an investigation into the causes of the incident. He wrote on X that the interior minister had been sent to the region to “examine the dimensions of the accident.”

State broadcaster IRIB said the explosion took place in the chemical and sulfur area of the port.

A government spokeswoman, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said it would take some time to establish the cause of the explosion – “but so far what has been determined is that containers were stored in a corner of the port that likely contained chemicals which exploded. But until the fire is extinguished, it’s hard to ascertain the cause.”

Shahid Rajaee is a large facility for container shipments, covering 2,400 hectares (around 5,900 acres). It handles 70 million tons of cargo annually, including oil and general shipping. It has nearly 500,000 square meters (5.4 million square feet) of warehouses and 35 shipping berths.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The funeral of Pope Francis gave Catholics across the globe the chance to bid farewell to a beloved pontiff – and for world leaders to rub shoulders at a fraught time for international diplomacy.

More than 250,000 people packed into St. Peter’s Square for Saturday’s service, the Vatican said, with members of the public there to mourn along with 55 heads of state.

The day’s most extraordinary meeting came just minutes before the service began. Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky held what American and Ukrainian officials described as a “productive” discussion in St. Peter’s Basilica, as Francis’ coffin was about to be brought into the square.

So, what was said, who met who, and where did everyone sit?

What was the seating plan?

St. Peter’s Square was split into quarters. Dignitaries, cardinals and bishops were at the front, nearest the basilica, while clergy and the general public were a little further back. The coffin was placed in front of the central altar.

Behind the seated sections, thousands more had packed into the square, standing for more than two hours in the Italian heat.

In the dignitaries’ section, politicians sat in alphabetical order in French, the traditional language of diplomacy.

This meant that Trump – president of “États-Unis d’Amerique” – sat between the presidents of Finland and Estonia, two nations that share borders with Russia, and which will be especially wary of a reduced US military footprint in Europe.

Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, played a round of golf with Trump in March during an unofficial trip to Florida. Trump said Stubb was a “very good player.” The Finnish presidency said the pair discussed European security, including Ukraine.

During Saturday’s “Sign of Peace,” a rite where members of the congregation shake hands with their neighbors and say “peace be with you,” Trump was seen shaking hands with several world leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron.

The only dignitaries not sat in alphabetical order were those from Italy – the host nation – and Argentina – Francis’ birthplace. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Argentinian President Javier Milei were sat near the front, with a cluster of other officials.

What happened at the Trump-Zelensky meeting?

In what was their first meeting since the explosive Oval Office meeting in February, Trump and Zelensky huddled in close discussion without aides in the ornate surroundings of St. Peter’s Basilica, shortly before the service began.

Both the White House and Ukrainian presidency said the talk lasted around 15 minutes, describing it as positive. Zelensky said the meeting was “symbolic,” with the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” The crowd in the square broke into applause when Zelensky stepped into the square.

“We discussed a lot one on one. Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out,” Zelensky wrote on X.

The US president and First Lady Melania Trump left Rome swiftly after the service, meaning the two leaders did not hold further discussions. Zelensky later met with Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The four leaders were pictured together in the basilica, after Trump and Zelensky’s one-to-one.

Who else was there?

Britain’s Prince William was among a string of royals in Saturday’s crowd. William, next in line to the British throne, sat next to Olaf Scholz, the outgoing chancellor of Germany. Spain’s King Felipe and Queen Letizia, as well as Queen Mary of Denmark, were also in attendance.

Polish President Andrzej Duda and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban were among several other European leaders in attendance. The South American leaders there included Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – who had a close relationship with Francis – and Ecuador’s recently re-elected president Daniel Noboa.

The heads of several supranational institutions were also there, including Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus – head of the World Health Organization, from which Trump withdrew the US in January – and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Julian Assange also made what was a rare public appearance since his release from Britain’s Belmarsh prison last year. The Wikileaks founder was seen with his wife, Stella, and their two children, at the Vatican.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In this video, Grayson highlights the crucial 5,500 level on the S&P 500 using our “Tactical Timing” chart. He then demonstrates two of the easiest methods for identifying the strongest stocks within key indexes like the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Dow Industrials. He’ll show you how to find leading stocks that are moving higher using the New Highs feature of the Market Summary dashboard. From there, Grayson explores the Index Members page, and explains how to sort by SCTR rankings to quickly pinpoint the strongest stocks within any major index.

This video originally premiered on April 25, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

The S&P 500 index managed to log one of its strongest weeks in 2025. Short-term breadth conditions have improved, and the crucial 5500 level has now been broken to the upside. Are we in the later stages of a countertrend rally, or just in the early innings of a broader recovery for stocks?

Let’s review three key charts together and evaluate the evidence.

Trendline Break Suggests Further Short-Term Strength

My daily chart of the S&P 500 has featured a thick pink trendline since March, when a lower peak around 5800 provided a perfect opportunity to define the downtrend phase. With the quick reversal off the early April low around 4850, the SPX has finally broken back above this trendline.

To be clear, after a breakout of this magnitude, I’m always looking for confirmation from the following day. Will additional buyers come in to push this chart even further to the upside? Assuming that’s the case, then I’m immediately drawn to a confluence of resistance in the 5750-5850 range. The 200-day moving average is currently sitting right around the late March peak, and both of those levels line up well with a price gap back in November 2024.

If the S&P 500 can finally break above that resistance range, I would expect much further upside for risk assets.

Breadth Conditions Confirm Short-Term Market Strength

One of the biggest improvements I’ve seen coming out of the early April low is the upgrade in short-term breadth conditions. The McClellan Oscillator has broken back above the zero level, most days this week saw more advancers than decliners, and the Bullish Percent Index has definitely improved.

In the bottom panel, we can see that the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has risen from a low just above 10% at the April low to finish this week at 64%. That confirms that over half of the S&P 500 members generated a point & figure buy signal in the month of April!

But the middle panel shows the real challenge here, in that long-term measures of breadth are still clearly in the bearish range. Just 35% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It’s only if this indicator can push above the 50% level that the S&P 500 could stand a real chance of sustainable gains above 5750.

The Stoplight Technique Lays Out a Clear Playbook

I love to overlay a “stoplight” visualization on a chart like this, helping me clarify how I’ll think about risk depending on where the S&P 500 sits at any given point.

I would argue that a confirmed break above resistance at 5500 brings the S&P 500 chart into the “neutral” bucket. In this way, we’re respecting the fact that a rally from 4850 to 5500 is a fairly impressive feat, but also acknowledging that the SPX remains below its most important long-term trend barometer, the 200-day moving average.

If we see further gains in the weeks to come, the SPX may indeed push into the bullish range, which for me would mean a push above 5750-5800. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would be clear of its 200-day moving average, and I would feel much more comfortable adding risk to the portfolio. Until and unless we see that upside follow-through, though, I’ll remain comfortably defensive.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

After weeks of uncertainty, the stock market finally gave us something to smile about. The major indexes just wrapped up four straight days of gains, and optimism is starting to creep back in. Could this be the shift we’ve been waiting for?

Let’s break it down.

The big concerns this week were all about tariffs and the potential removal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But markets breathed a sigh of relief when it looked like tensions might ease between the two largest global economies. Plus, Powell staying put at the Fed helped calm some nerves.

In short, the fear factor took a breather, and the bulls took charge.

What Are the Charts Telling Us?

The S&P 500 ($SPX) crossed above the key 5500 level. This isn’t just any number; it’s a major line in the sand. It represents the March low and, if you go further back on the daily chart below, it has been a support and resistance level for previous price action. The purple horizontal line marks the 5,500 level.

FIGURE 1. SIGNS OF A TURNAROUND? The S&P 500 closed above the key 5,500 level, a major breakthrough. Breadth indicators are suggesting expanding bullish participation. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Even better, market breadth is improving.

We are also seeing strength across the board:

  • BPI readings for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 100, S&P 500, and Dow Industrials are all above 50%.
  • 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have BPIs above 50%, with Consumer Staples being the only one with a BPI below 50. This is surprising since it was one of the only sectors above 50% not long ago.

Sector Watch: Who’s Leading?

If you’re looking for clues about the market’s next big move, watch sector rotation. Right now, leadership is coming from:

  • Technology
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Communication Services

These are your classic “risk-on” sectors—if they’re leading, that’s typically a bullish sign.

What About Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar?

Some of the big-picture trends are starting to stabilize, too:

  • Bond yields are dipping, which is helping bond prices recover.
  • Gold pulled back after hitting new highs.
  • The U.S. dollar is showing signs of strength again.
  • And the $VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—is finally back below 30.

All small signs, but they add up.

Indicator of the Week: The Zweig Breadth Thrust

One indicator all technical analysts should take note of is the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  It’s a rare signal that flashes when market breadth shifts quickly from bearish to bullish.

The indicator is the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of net NYSE advances. The NYSE Breadth Thrust signal fires when the indicator moves from below 0.40 to above 0.615 in 10 days.

The weekly chart below shows that this is the third time the Zweig Breadth Thrust signal was fired in the last five years. The last two times this occurred were in 2023, when the NYSE recovered after dipping below its 40- and 150-week simple moving average (SMA). This time, the index bounced off its 150-week SMA.

FIGURE 2. ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST FIRES A REVERSAL SIGNAL. Previous signals have been followed by bullish moves in the NYSE. Will we see a similar scenario this time? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The Zweig Breadth Thrust is a bullish reversal signal. Note that each time the signal was fired, the market moved higher. It doesn’t guarantee a bull run, but it’s a green flag.

What’s Coming Next Week?

If this weren’t a headline-driven market, I would be more confident about the possibility of the market moving higher. Next week is packed with potential market-moving headlines.

  • Big Tech earnings
  • Q1 GDP
  • PCE Inflation data (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge)
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • Non-Farm Payrolls

At the Close

The underlying market conditions are improving and some key signals are flashing green. But, as noted, it’s still a headline-driven market, and that means all the more reason to stay alert. Focus on leading sectors, watch for confirmation in breadth, and keep your investment plan tight.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 4.59% on the week, at 5525.21, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.48% on the week at 40,113.50; Nasdaq Composite up 6.73% on the week at 17,382.94.
  • $VIX down 16.22% on the week, closing at 24.84.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Staples
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB); Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD); Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK); MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and others reporting
  • March JOLTs Job Openings
  • Q1 GDP Growth Rate
  • March PCE
  • April ISM Manufacturing
  • April Non-Farm Payrolls


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, after last week’s sharp market rally, Mary Ellen breaks down where the markets stand now, which leading sectors are showing the most strength, and how to recognize if your stocks are entering a new uptrend. Get expert insights on market leadership, sector rotation, and key signals to watch as momentum builds in specific areas of the market. This is a must-watch for investors looking to stay on top of current stock trends and spot early breakout opportunities.

This video originally premiered April 25, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Following a strong move the week before, the markets took on a more consolidatory look over the past five sessions. Following ranged moves, the Nifty closed the week on just a modestly positive note. From a technical standpoint, the Nifty tested a few important levels on both daily and weekly charts. However, the trading range narrowed. The Index oscillated in a 517.60-point range over the past week. The volatility surged again; the India VIX spiked 10.93% to 17.16. The headline index went on to close with a modest weekly gain of 187.70 points (+0.79%).

The coming week is shortened, with Thursday being a trading holiday due to Maharashtra Day. We could write about more than one thing that the markets could be worried about over the coming days. It could be the lowered growth forecasts by the IMF that include India and other economies; it could also be the heightened possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. However, all that said, the markets are also at a crucial technical juncture. The Nifty has closed just at the 200-DMA placed at 24050. Besides this, Index has also defended the 50-week MA at 23925. This makes the 23,900-24,050 zone a crucial support area for the Nifty. The consolidation is imminent as the Nifty has rebounded over 11% from its April 07 lows, and minor corrective retracements cannot be ruled out. However, if 23900 is breached, the markets may see some extended retracements.

The weekly RSI is at 55.46; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line. A candle resembling a Shooting Star has emerged, increasing the likelihood of consolidation. Importantly, any candle formation should not be traded in isolation and must be used in conjunction with the overall technical setup.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has defended the 50-week MA placed at 23925. The Index has also tested a rising trendline resistance; it violated this trendline support on its way down, and now this is expected to act as resistance. Overall, the zone of 24050-23900 is a crucial support zone for Nifty. If the level of 23900 is violated, it can lead to incremental weakness.

Overall, the technical structure of the market suggests that it is time for one to focus more on protecting gains at higher levels. While there could be some reactions by the markets due to external factors, the underlying buoyancy stays intact. The only thing to be cautious about is the natural corrective retracements that the market may experience following the steep upward move that has taken place. Investors must keep fresh purchases should be kept in low-beta stocks that have strong relative strength. With sector rotation visible, a cautious outlook is advised for the day.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Consumption, Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Metal, and Nifty Bank Indices are also inside the leading quadrant. While the weakening of Relative Momentum is seen in the Metal and Financial Services Index, they are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

The Midcap 100 and the Realty Index are showing strong improvement in their Relative Momentum while staying inside the lagging quadrant. The IT and the Auto Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant.

The Media Index has rolled inside the Improving quadrant, indicating a likely beginning of its phase of relative outperformance. The Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are also inside the improving quadrant.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae