An empty base as a target, with many hours warning, and a limited number of missiles fired at some of the best air defense systems in the world. Iran’s retaliation for the US’s weekend strikes on three of its nuclear facilities can only have been designed to deescalate.

The US-run Al Udeid airbase in Qatar had been evacuated days earlier, with satellite images showing the departure of planes and personnel widely publicised in the media. It is the most important US military airbase in the region, the home of Central Command. It even launched the drone that killed Iran’s top military personality, General Qasem Soleimani, in 2020, Iranian state media said in the hours after “Operation Glad Tidings of Victory.” The Monday strike against Al-Udeid had close to zero chance of American casualties – and provided the perfect moment of quasi-absurd face-saving for Iran.

The first hint of a possible strike came when the US Embassy in Doha, Qatar, issued an emergency “shelter in place” order for US citizens. As if to remove any doubt, Qatar closed its airspace about an hour prior to the launch of what appears to have been close to a dozen missiles by Iran. Adding to the favourable conditions of the launch for Iran’s dwindling arsenal, Qatar is close enough to permit the use of shorter-range missiles, stocks of which have not been as depleted as the medium-range missiles used to hit Israel over the past week.

To pour water on anything resembling a flame, Iran’s National Security Council said moments after the attack the number of missiles fired had been “as many as the number of bombs used in the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.” Packaging the barrage as the definition of a proportionate response, the Iranian statement went on to insist the attack posed “no dangerous aspect to our friendly and brotherly country of Qatar and its noble people.”

Tehran’s method of retaliation-without-fangs has been successfully tried and tested. After Soleimani was killed, Iran’s retaliatory missile attack against the US’s Al Asad airbase in Iraq was reportedly telegraphed to Baghdad beforehand, possibly helping reduce the level of US injury suffered to mostly concussions. Iran’s response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 in the heart of Tehran heavily telegraphed in advance.

“We knew they’d retaliate. They had a similar response after Soleimani,” a senior White House official said Monday night.

A playbook appears to be forming. But it is one that compounds Iran’s military weakness each time it is employed. In 2020, the Islamic Republic lost its pre-eminent military personality – an Iranian hardline hero. In 2024, it showed that valuable allies were not safe in central Tehran. This year, the regime has lost control of its own airspace to the point of previously unthinkable strikes on their prized nuclear facilities by both Israel and the US.

This is stark testament to the differing powers on display. Iran has to feign its strength in a managed presentation of restrained and muted anger. The US and Israel get to break taboos daily, shattering Iran’s long-held position as a regional power in under ten days, and perhaps ending its ambitions to be a nuclear power.

There is now only one real red line left for the United States or Israel to cross, and that is to directly target Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But that may seem ill-advised, given the likelihood this octogenarian theocrat would be replaced by a younger hardliner who is keener to flex Iran’s muscles of deterrence. Better to accept toothless retaliations amid Tehran’s slow decline.

Each expression of Iran’s anger has confirmed its slow erosion of power. An angry fledging nuclear power would have accelerated its race to an atomic bomb. That may still happen. But it looks more likely that Iran is desperately hoping its performative lashing out can sate what remains of its hardliners, decimated by Israeli strikes. It may even hope to shuffle back to diplomacy, with talks to contain a nuclear program and ballistic missile stockpile likely severely depleted to shadows of what they were merely ten days ago.

In the past 48 hours, the Middle East has witnessed an unprecedented US airstrike on Iran with its most powerful non-nuclear weapons, an Iranian retaliatory strike on the largest US air base in the region, to an apparent truce that will see Iran and Israel end their hostilities that have set the world on edge.

The region and the wider world watched warily as events unfolded overnight into Tuesday, but with a degree of hope as daylight broke in the region that what US President Donald Trump called the “12 Day War” may be over.

“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social account.

Around the same time, Israeli emergency workers were at the site of what appeared to be Iran’s final attack of the 12-day conflict, a missile strike in Beer Shiva that left at least five people dead and 20 wounded.

It could be the last hostile act of two days of whipsawing developments leading up to Trump’s surprise announcement of a ceasefire.

Here’s the situation Tuesday in the Middle East.

The ceasefire deal

On Monday evening in Washington, the US president announced the ceasefire.

“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” Trump said in a social media post.

“I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR,” Trump said.

Trump said the ceasefire would be phased in, with Iran ending attacks on Israel first, then Israel stopping its attacks on Iran 12 hours later. But the exact timing of those events was unclear.

During the negotiations, Trump communicated directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff negotiated the terms, through direct and indirect channels, with the Iranians, the source said.

Trump said in a later social media post that both Israel and Iran came to him to get a ceasefire done.

Iranian state media reported, however, that Trump sought the ceasefire deal “in a begging-like manner” after the attack on the US air base in Qatar.

Whether a ceasefire will hold remains to be seen.

Around the time Iran was supposed to have stopped its attacks under the Trump timeline, its missiles hit Israel, killing at least five civilians, according to Israeli officials.

Iran fires on biggest US base in region

Just hours before Trump’s ceasefire announcement, Iran fired about a dozen short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest US military installation in the Middle East.

But Tehran tipped both the US and Qatar that the strike was coming, and air defenses, including Patriot missile batteries, were able to intercept all but one of the incoming Iranian missiles, according to US and Qatari officials. No deaths or injuries were reported in Qatar.

In a social media post, Trump thanked Iran for warning the missile attack was coming.

“Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured,” Trump said.

“Tehran’s choice to limit its retaliation and deescalate the crisis is rational on their part given overwhelming US strength and Iranian weakness,” said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities.

What about Iran’s nuclear program?

Israel’s contention that Iran would soon be able to build a nuclear weapon was the impetus for the conflict, which began with Israel Defense Forces strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and against Iran’s military and nuclear program scientists on the night of June 12-13.

Trump followed on Israel’s airstrikes by ordering an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, including a fleet of US B-2 bombers to dropping fourteen 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on two deeply buried sites in Iran, the first time weapon had been used in combat.

Trump administration officials said Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which they said was just days away from the ability to make a nuclear bomb, was set back years by the US strikes.

Experts were more skeptical, saying Iranian stores of enriched uranium may have escaped destruction in the US strikes and Tehran may be able to make a weapon in just a few months.

What now for Gaza?

The Middle East has been a tinderbox since October 2023, when Hamas militants from Gaza entered Israel in force, killing hundreds and taking dozens more hostage.

Israel responded with an invasion of the Palestinian enclave to root out Hamas from tunnels and other fortifications that has left over 55,000 people dead, much of Gaza in ruins and its population of 2.1 million at risk of famine, according to the World Health Organization.

While the world’s attention has been on Israel’s fighting with Iran, dozens of people have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza as they scramble to get the limited food aid allowed into the territory, including 21 in the past day, Palestinians say.

A group advocating for the return of Israeli hostages held in Gaza has called for the ceasefire between Israel and Iran to be expanded to include the war-torn enclave.

“Those who can achieve a ceasefire with Iran can also end the war in Gaza,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement Tuesday.

The forum said the ceasefire “must expand to include Gaza” and called on the government “to engage in urgent negotiations that will bring home all the hostages and end the war.”

“After 12 days and nights during which the people of Israel could not sleep because of Iran, we can finally go back to not sleeping because of the hostages,” the forum said.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid echoed those sentiments, writing in a post on X: “And now Gaza. This is the moment to close that front as well. To bring the hostages home, to end the war. Israel needs to start rebuilding.”

At least 120 children have been kidnapped by jihadist insurgents in northern Mozambique in recent days, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said Tuesday, warning of a rise in abductions in the country’s troubled Cabo Delgado province.

The children are reportedly being used by an Islamic State–linked group known locally as al-Shabab to transport looted goods, perform forced labor, and in some cases serve as child soldiers or be forced into marriage.

Mozambique has been battling the Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado since 2017. Government forces have struggled to contain the violence, relying on support from troops sent by Rwanda, South Africa, and other regional partners.

In 2020, the insurgents carried out a wave of attacks in which they beheaded dozens of people, including children. Witnesses have said that children abducted from towns and villages have been used as fighters in subsequent attacks.

The violence has displaced more than 600,000 people and spilled into neighboring provinces, according to the United Nations. HRW said there had been a resurgence of attacks and child kidnappings in the last two months and called on Mozambique’s government to do more to find the children and prevent further abductions.

The problems in Cabo Delgado were largely overshadowed by Mozambique’s deadly and long-running post-election protests last year. Cabo Delgado has also been battered by several recent cyclones and hurt by US President Donald Trump’s cuts to foreign aid.

The secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), Jan Egeland, visited Cabo Delgado this month and described the situation in northern Mozambique as a neglected crisis.

“Climate shocks, increasing violence and spiraling hunger are having a terrible impact on the population,” Egeland said.

The NRC said more than 5 million people faced critical levels of hunger and more than 900,000 people faced emergency hunger conditions.

Russia killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians in less than 48 hours on Monday and Tuesday, according to Ukrainian officials, two of the deadliest days in many months.

A five-year-old boy and an 11-year-old girl were among the victims of the Russian attacks, launched just as Ukraine’s allies began gathering for a key NATO meeting in the Netherlands.

Ukrainian officials said 15 people were killed in Dnipro on Tuesday after a Russian ballistic missile hit the city, the largest in the country’s south-east, while 9 people were killed in a strike on a Kyiv apartment building on Monday.

At least two dozen others were killed in strikes across the country, including in Sumy, Kherson, Donetsk and Odesa regions.

In Dnipro, local officials said the missile caused damage unlike any previous attacks on the city.

Mayor Borys Filatov said almost 50 buildings were damaged, including schools, medical facilities, municipal sites and residential buildings.

“This is an unprecedented amount of destruction that the city has never seen before in the entire time of the full-scale war. The number of victims is so high that even ambulances cannot keep up,” he added.

More than 170 people were injured, according to authorities, with around 100 remaining in city hospitals as of Tuesday evening.

A passenger train carrying some 500 people was also damaged in the strike.

“In residential buildings and various municipal facilities throughout the city, we have over 2,000 shattered windows alone,” he said.

Zelensky highlights Russia’s ties to Iran

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky was in The Hague for the NATO summit on Tuesday, meeting several European leaders on its sidelines before addressing the Dutch parliament.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO and, while it wants to join, the issue of its potential future membership remains contentious. Russia has tried to prevent Ukraine from ever being able to join the alliance, with Moscow arguing that NATO’s eastward expansion following the end of the Cold War has posed threats to its security.

Zelensky met NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, President of the European Council Antonia Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, all of whom have reiterated their support for Ukraine.

He was hoping to meet US President Donald Trump later on Tuesday, according to Ukrainian officials.

The two were scheduled to meet at the G7 summit in Canada earlier this month, but that meeting did not happen as Trump left the summit earlier than expected because of the Iran-Israel conflict.

As the world turned its attention to the Middle East, Zelensky was keen to highlight the connection between Iran and Russia.

Iran has been among Russia’s strongest backers since President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Iranian regime has supplied Moscow with weapons, including short-range ballistic missiles and thousands of Shahed drones; according to US officials, it has also built a drone factory in Russia.

Moscow has in turn stood by Iran during the recent conflict with Israel and after the US strikes against Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday.

Russia has intensified its aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, after successfully scaling up its domestic production of its most frequently used type of drone – the Iran-designed Shahed.

Zelensky said on Tuesday that Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed drones against Ukraine since 2022, with 2,736 fired by so far this month.

“Russia could never have done this without its ties to the Iranian regime,” he said.

The Ukrainian leader told reporters at the summit that there were no signs Putin wanted to stop his war against Ukraine.

“Russia rejects all peace proposals, including those from the United States of America. Putin only thinks about war. That’s a fact. Maybe he connects his own political survival with his ability to keep killing, so long as he kills, he lives,” Zelensky said.

Talks between Russia, Ukraine and third countries have mostly stalled after Moscow refused to back off its maximalist demands and presented a ceasefire proposal that would essentially amount to Ukraine’s capitulation.

Speaking on the sidelines of the summit, British Defense Secretary John Healy said that while “all eyes have been on the Middle East,” it was crucial not to forget about Ukraine.

“Putin wants our focus to slip, and part of the strong message from NATO is that we will not let that happen, and this session is an important part of that,” he said.

Zelensky was in London on Monday, where he met British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as King Charles III.

Kyiv officials said the attack on the apartment building on Monday killed multiple members of several families.

Lusy Alekseenkova, a journalist with a Ukrainian TV channel, said her brother, his wife and her sister-in-law’s father were killed in the attack on Kyiv, with her 16-year-old nephew the sole survivor.

The same strike left a mother and her 11-year-old daughter dead, Tymur Tkachenko, the head of Kyiv Military Administration, said on Telegram, adding that it took many hours to recover the little girl’s body.