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This week’s clashes between Pakistan and India are the most serious escalation in tensions between these two historic foes in decades with millions on both sides of their border now wondering what might come next.

Despite a vow to “avenge” India’s strikes on its territory, Pakistan has yet to retaliate in kind on India, and both sides appear to have already claimed victory. But hostilities continue.

Palpable panic rocked both nations Wednesday after New Delhi launched targeted military strikes on its neighbor, while Islamabad claimed it had shot down its rival’s fighter jets.

The fear is that each additional confrontational step by either side could quickly spiral into an all out conflict.

Indian media was euphoric after Wednesday’s strikes. “Strokes of justice,” ran an editorial from one of India’s leading English newspapers commending the country’s “sharp” and “resolute” response to the massacre of 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir, at the hands of militants. A headline from The Indian Express echoed a similar tune: “Justice Served” it said across the front page.

In Pakistan, the public response from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was similarly bellicose.

He has vowed to “avenge” the deaths of 31 people Pakistan says were killed in India’s strikes but still appeared to declare triumph for its apparent shooting of India’s airplanes.

“It only took a few hours for the enemy to fall on its knees,” he said in a late-night address to the nation.

India says it struck “terrorist infrastructure” belonging to two Islamist groups – Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed – who have been accused of being behind some the deadliest militant attacks on the country. Wednesday’s strikes did not target military infrastructure and didn’t kill civilians, New Delhi said, potentially giving India and Pakistan an opportunity to find a way to avoid an all-out war.

One location India struck was deep in Pakistan’s Punjab province, the deepest attack in Pakistan’s undisputed territory since both countries fought a major war in 1971. It also targeted multiple other locations in Punjab – the heartland of the powerful military and home of the Sharif government – and hit a mosque, according to Pakistani officials, angering millions in the Muslim-majority nation.

What happens now, analysts say, mostly depends on Islamabad’s next move.

“All eyes are on Pakistan,” said Washington-based South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman. “If it decides to save face and claim victory — perhaps by pointing to the downing of Indian jets (which New Delhi has not confirmed) — and call it a day, an off ramp could be in sight.”

But he warned “all bets would be off” should Pakistan decide to strike back.

‘Something to lose’

Most analysts agree the nuclear-armed neighbors cannot afford another battle.

India and Pakistan have already fought three wars over Kashmir, a contested region they both claim in its entirety and each control a part of. Another conflict could have catastrophic consequences.

Since its birth seven decades ago in the partition of what was British India, Pakistan – now home to 230 million people – has faced mounting challenges, from political instability to an alarming militant insurgency, climate catastrophes and economic disarray.

India is seemingly in a stronger position; its military is seen as superior in any conventional conflict based on number alone and it boasts an economy more than 10 times the size of Pakistan’s. But it too would have something to lose should the conflict escalate, according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.

“Largely on the basis of what we’ve seen in previous times, these are two rational actors who don’t want a broader war,” Madan said.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to elevate India’s status on the global stage, bidding to host the Olympics and seeking to overtake China as the world’s manufacturing hub.

Not to mention, India already faces security threats on multiple fronts — particularly along contested borders with China.

De-escalation or more to come?

India was quick to project that its response to the April 22 massacre was “focused, measured and non-escalatory” and make clear that they were in response to the tourist’s massacre.

Top officials in New Delhi reached out to key counterparts in the United States, Middle East and Russia, among others, “presumably to encourage international pressure for Pakistan to avoid escalation,” said Nisha Biswal, Senior Advisor at The Asia Group.

Pakistan’s leaders touted a victory by the country’s air force, saying five Indian fighter jets were shot down during an hour-long battle fought at ranges over 160 kilometers (100 miles).

India’s leaders have said little in response to those claims and have not acknowledged any aircraft losses. The Pakistanis have yet to show any evidence proving they downed fighter jets, but a French Defense Ministry source said at least one of India’s newest and most-advanced warplanes – a French-made Rafale fighter jet – was lost in the battle.

If there have indeed been losses for India, Pakistan could claim victory “even if the circumstances are murky,” said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This would allow Pakistan to claim it has imposed costs on Indian military targets.”

Yet, amid the fog of war, Pakistan’s powerful army general Asim Munir had already vowed to match any aggression from India.

And Munir, who is known for his hardline stance on Hindu-nationalist Modi, has a reputation of being more assertive than his predecessor Qamar Javed Bajwa.

Meanwhile there have been many voices within Modi’s Hindu nationalist party pushing for a decisive blow against Pakistan for years.

Kugelman, the South Asia analyst, said the US, which has historically interceded in these crises, could try to defuse the tension, but it’s unclear how much bandwidth the Trump administration is willing to allocate.

“China has called for de-escalation, but its fraught ties with India rule it out as a viable intermediary. The top mediator candidates are the Arab Gulf states, especially Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates,” he said, given their strong ties with both nations.

Qatar was quick to urge diplomacy in the hours after Wednesday’s strikes.

While most analysts think there is an off-ramp for both nations, they all agree the situation remains fluid and tense.

“This crisis is as unpredictable as it is dangerous—an unsettling combination,” Kugelman added.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Britain’s King Charles and heir to the throne Prince William laid wreaths in Westminster Abbey on Thursday at the culmination of the country’s four days of commemorations to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day.

The thanksgiving service in the Abbey began with a two-minute silence, which was also observed across the country, to remember Nazi Germany’s unconditional surrender, which took effect on May 8, 1945.

Charles and William, military medals pinned on their chest and standing beside elderly veterans in wheelchairs, laid wreaths at the the Grave of the Unknown Warrior, in a show of respect for those who gave their lives in World War Two.

The anniversary, which comes at a time of ongoing conflict in Europe with Russia’s war in Ukraine, was also marked with events in France and Germany, while Moscow will hold a major military parade on Friday.

Speaking at a defense conference in London on Thursday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the day a celebration of defiance, sacrifice and courage.

“A victory not just for Britain but for good against the assembled forces of hatred, tyranny and evil,” he said.

In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of the “sacred” victory over Adolf Hitler, and said his country was standing against “neo-Nazism,” a characterisation of the current conflict in Ukraine that is strongly rejected by Kyiv.

Putin was holding talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is joining Russia’s celebrations.

French President Emmanuel Macron was due to lay a wreath at the statue of French wartime hero Charles de Gaulle in Paris and inspect a troop parade at the Arc de Triomphe. Dozens of World War Two-era vehicles will also parade down the Champs-Elysees avenue.

In Berlin, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will address the Bundestag, the lower house of Germany’s parliament,during a special remembrance session.

VE Day’s 80th anniversary will be one of the last major celebrations with living veterans attending events, as most are now in their 90s or older.

British veterans were among the congregation at Westminster Abbey in London. They will be greeted by Charles and his wife Queen Camilla after the service, before senior royals also lay flowers at a memorial nearby.

Veterans also attended a grand military parade and flypast close to Buckingham Palace on Monday, one of a series of anniversary events, in what has been a busy few days for Charles.

The monarch, 76, was last year diagnosed with an unspecified form of cancer and is still undergoing treatment.

Later on Thursday there will be a concert at Horse Guards Parade for 10,000 people. Charles and Camilla will be in the audience to hear music and the stories of veterans.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The Israeli military acknowledged Thursday that it does not have “sufficient evidence” to substantiate terrorism funding allegations it leveled against a prominent Palestinian journalist, even as an Israeli general ordered he be detained for another six months.

The Israeli military’s top general in the occupied West Bank ordered the journalist, Ali Samoudi, 58, to be held under administrative detention, which allows the military to hold individuals without trial for up to six months at a time. Administrative detention orders can be renewed indefinitely.

The commander issued the order on Wednesday following a military court hearing last week during which prosecutors sought to extend his detention.

Palestinians living in the West Bank are subject to Israeli military law and are typically tried in military courts, not Israeli civilian courts.

At the time, the Israeli military accused him of transferring funds to Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a militant group in the West Bank and Gaza which Israel considers a terrorist organization. The Israeli military provided no evidence to back up its claim.

Israeli military prosecutors never leveled that accusation in court, Samoudi’s lawyer Jamil al-Khatib said, instead vaguely accusing Samoudi of harming the activity of Israeli forces in the West Bank.

The military’s administrative detention order cites Samoudi’s “presence posing a danger to the security of the region” as justification for his detention.

He is one of 20 journalists detained and held under administrative detention since the start of the war in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society (PPS).

“Samoudi’s arrest and administrative detention is part of the occupation’s escalating campaign of targeting journalists, particularly through the systematic use of administrative detention,” the PPS said in a statement.

Samoudi is now being held in Megiddo prison in central Israel, according to his lawyer, where he is still waiting to receive his eyeglasses and medications for several chronic conditions, including high blood pressure and diabetes.

One of the most well-known Palestinian journalists in the West Bank, Samoudi has worked with international news organizations for decades as a local producer and fixer.

He was also a witness to the high-profile killing of Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, by Israeli forces in 2022, during which he was also shot.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “defend ourselves alone” against Yemen’s Houthi rebels after US President Donald Trump struck a deal with the Iran-backed group.

According to Trump, the US would halt an ongoing military campaign against the Houthis in exchange for the group stopping its attacks on US interests in the region.

The Houthis acknowledged the agreement but made it clear their attacks on Israel would continue. Senior Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi said after the announcement that the agreement was “a victory that separates US support for the temporary entity (Israel) and a failure for Netanyahu.”

On Wednesday, Netanyahu said, “Israel will defend itself by itself.” In the past, Israel has carried out joint strikes with the US against the Houthis, but two consecutive days of Israeli attacks on Yemen earlier this week were done alone. “If others join us—our American friends—all the better. If they don’t, we will still defend ourselves on our own,” he said in a video posted on social media.

Trump referred to the deal as capitulation from the Houthis on Tuesday but on Wednesday he said they had a “good outcome with the Houthis,” adding they had a “great capacity to withstand punishment” from repeated US strikes.

“You could say there’s a lot of bravery there,” Trump said at a swearing-in of his ambassador to China at the White House. “It was amazing what they took.”

He added that the US would “honor their (Houthis’) commitment” not to attack US warships or commercial vessels in the region.

Trump ‘thinks about America’s interests’

The US-Houthi truce sidelined the Israeli government, according to former US Middle East envoy Dennis Ross.

He noted that Netanyahu was left in the dark when the US began talks with Hamas in March and only found out about US nuclear talks with Iran when Trump made the announcement seated next to the prime minister in the Oval Office last month. The US-Houthi ceasefire is one more instance where Israel’s concerns were a tertiary consideration for the White House, if at all, he said.

“The Trump Administration thinks about America’s interests,” said Ross.

There has been no public criticism of the White House decision from Israeli officials. Netanyahu, who once openly criticized the Biden administration’s requests and policies, is one of Trump’s most vocal international supporters. Other members of the government have reserved their judgement as well, instead focusing on Israel’s resolve against the Houthis.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a statement on Thursday that “Israel must be able to defend itself by itself against any threat and any enemy. This has been true in the face of many past challenges, and it will remain true in the future.”

Trump designated the Houthi group as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in the final days of his first term as president. President Joe Biden revoked that designation early in his presidency in 2021, and Trump designated it again in January.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

If Skin Gourmet’s skincare products look good enough to eat, that’s because they are: all are made from locally sourced materials that are edible.

The Ghanaian company was founded in 2014 by Violet Amoabeng, and makes cleansers, scrubs, oils and butters. “No gimmicks, no toxins, no waste — just raw, edible Ghanaian goodness that helps people feel seen, valued, and connected to something meaningful,” she says.

For Amoabeng, “If you can’t eat it, why put it on your skin?” because “anything put on your skin, is absorbed into your body.”

The company’s palm kernel butter, made from locally sourced palm kernels, blended with cocoa and vanilla, is a skin and hair balm, won the Best Eco-Friendly Product category at the 2024 Ghana Beauty Awards.

However, its naturally smoky, chocolatey aroma, also makes it a popular cookery ingredient for local customers like Sorella Bakery, in Accra. Skin Gourmet even used it in a cake they gave to customers who bought their products.

“We created a palm kernel butter cake with passion fruit curd and lime buttercream,” says Amoabeng. “The smoky richness of the palm kernel paired perfectly with the bright citrus and tropical curd.”

Skin Gourmet’s hibiscus & tea sugar scrub is a colorful, sweet and tangy anti-oxidant, anti-inflammatory and acne treatment. Containing cane sugar, raw hibiscus powder, raw coconut oil, Ghanaian sea salt, tea tree essential oil and wild northern honey, it can also be added to drinks and food. Renowned chef and 2025 Time Earth Award recipient Selassie Atadika has been known to cook with the hibiscus powder and coconut oil, according to Amoabeng.

Tapping into Ghana’s resources

Amoabeng, who has an MBA in Business Administration from Shenandoah University, in the United States, came up with the concept for the company while looking for business ideas that could create jobs and boost economic growth in Ghana by using the country’s abundant natural resources.

After suffering from a sore lip and successfully treating it with shea butter, she tried to source more and was told by a local community that they eat shea butter. Inspired, she started Skin Gourmet in 2014, with only $45.

She now works with smallholder farmers and communities in Ghana to source raw materials for pre-processing. The products are then packaged in Accra, marketed, distributed, and sold in over 30 countries worldwide including Switzerland, Japan, Qatar, Turkey, Germany and France.

The global edible cosmetics market was estimated to be worth $266 million in 2023, according to Grand View Research — attracting shoppers who are “increasingly concerned about the ingredients they apply to their bodies and overall health.”

Global research firm Technavio projects that an expanding consumer base in Africa, particularly demanding natural ingredients and anti-aging products, will grow the continent’s beauty and personal care market by $8.18 billion between 2023 and 2028.

A growing number of African companies are producing skin care products specifically for African consumers, including Uncover, founded in 2020 in Kenya, which uses African ingredients such as baobab and rooibos leaf extract in its products.

Amoabeng now plans to expand her business and reach consumers around the world. She is guided by her faith in God and says that “everything we make starts with prayer and reflection because true innovation flows from Him. It’s not just about creating skincare — it’s about stewardship.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A federal judge ruled on Monday that a class action lawsuit alleging that Burger King falsely advertised the size of its signature cheeseburger can move forward.

U.S. District Judge Roy K. Altman in Florida found ‘some’ merit to the plaintiff’s argument that the fast food chain advertised its Whopper cheeseburger and other menu items to appear bigger than they are.

An image of the Whopper burger from the lawsuit.District Court South Florida

Nineteen customers from 13 states sued Burger King in 2022, alleging that the burgers they advertised were ‘approximately 35% larger in size, and contain more than double the meat, than the actual burger.”

The lawsuit contains side-by-side images of the bright colored, larger-than-life burger advertisements next to the droopy images taken by customers.

‘Each of our Plaintiffs purchased BKC products at Burger King stores in their home states, and each came away disappointed by the incongruity between what they received and what they expected based on BKC’s advertisements,’ the lawsuit says.

Burger King sought to dismiss the lawsuit, but Altman on Monday stated that the plaintiff’s allegations ‘go beyond mere exaggeration or puffery.’

A spokesperson for Burger King said in a Monday statement that ‘the plaintiffs’ claims are false.’

‘The flame-grilled beef patties portrayed in our advertising are the same patties used in the millions of burgers we serve to Guests across the U.S.,’ the spokesperson added.

A lawyer representing the plaintiffs, Anthony Russo, said in a Monday statement that the plaintiffs were ‘pleased’ with the judge’s ruling and ‘are ready to move forward.’

A similar lawsuit against McDonald’s and Wendy’s was dismissed in September.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su said China is a “large opportunity” market for the semiconductor and artificial intelligence industry even as export controls and evolving tariff plans loom over the world’s second-largest economy.

“There should be a balance between export controls for national security as well as ensuring that we get the widest possible adoption of our technology,” Su told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday. “That’s a good thing for U.S. jobs in the U.S. economy.”

She added that U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence and widespread adoption is the primary objective and a “really great position for us to be in.”

Su said there is a “balance to be played between” restricting and providing access to chips.

The comments come on the heels of the company’s fiscal first-quarter results. AMD topped earnings and expectations and issued strong guidance, but said it would see a $1.5 billion hit this year from China export controls. Last month, the company said it would incur up to $800 million in costs from shipping its MI308 products to China and other countries.

The U.S. government has cracked down on chip shipments to China in recent years, restricting the sale of more advanced AI processors to China that could be used to improve military capabilities and eat away at U.S. dominance.

President Donald Trump’s evolving tariff policies have added more turbulence to the sector in recent weeks, and many investors are combing for signs of demand pressure.

While AMD would “prefer a more certain environment,” Su said that the company is working to move manufacturing to the U.S. She added that the impact from tariffs on its portfolio is a minor blip and that the company saw “robust” sales in April.

“We’ve learned to become very agile through all of the things that have happened to the semiconductor supply chain, and we’re going to continue to watch all of these trends very carefully and make sure that we react appropriately going forward,” she said.

Other Ai chipmaking CEO have also called attention to the impact of chip restrictions in a rapidly expanding AI market. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC’s Jon Fortt on Tuesday that getting pushed out of the the country would be a “tremendous loss.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

National Basketball Association superstar Russell Westbrook is taking a shot off the court at simplifying funeral planning with artificial intelligence.

The famed Denver Nuggets point guard on Wednesday announced the launch of Eazewell, a startup that uses AI technology to streamline the process for coordinating funerals. Westbrook founded the venture with former Charlotte Hornets star Kemba Walker and childhood friend Donnell Beverly Jr., who serves as president of Russell Westbrook Enterprises and CEO and co-founder of Eazewell.

“My whole career, on and off the court, has been about stepping up decisively in the moments that matter most,” Westbrook wrote in a statement to CNBC. Westbrook and the Nuggets are currently facing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Western Conference semifinals. “Eazewell is exactly that — a decisive solution to a very real problem.”

The Los Angeles-based company uses AI to curate funeral options catered to each user’s budgets and preferences. The platform assists with paperwork, budget planning, invitations and overlooked tasks such as canceling a deceased loved one’s utility bills and social media accounts. Eazewell currently has 11 employees and has already tested its beta platform with more than 1,000 families. 

Eazewell has not disclosed funding but has revenue agreements with partner services. The startup is also working on partnerships with finance and life insurance companies in the space. The service is free to use and does not have an ads component “at this stage,” a company spokesperson said.

“We’re trying to take the weight off people’s shoulders as much as we can, and make this process so much easier for people,” Walker told CNBC in a phone interview. Walker played college basketball with Beverly at the University of Connecticut.

Eazewell traces its origins to Westbrook and Beverly’s high school days, when their friend and basketball teammate Khelcey Barrs III passed away unexpectedly from an enlarged heart. Westbrook commemorates Barrs to this day by wearing a bracelet with the initials “KB3” in every NBA game he plays and on his signature Jordan Why Not Zer0.6 “Khelcey Barrs” shoe.

“It’s a reminder that life can change in an instant,” Westbrook said. “You don’t get to choose the moment, but you do get to choose how you respond.”

The experience left a lasting effect on the two friends, Beverly said, but it wasn’t until the death of Beverly’s parents that he experienced funeral planning hurdles firsthand. Beverly said the experience was “messy” and “grueling.”

Disillusioned and frustrated by the process after the death of his mother and father in 2016 and 2023, respectively, Beverly turned to his close friends to come up with the solution that became Eazewell.

“It just seems like the perfect time to really turn our shared pain into purpose,” Beverly said.

One of Eazewell’s most innovative features is its voice-activated AI agent that can gather cost quotes and call funeral homes on a user’s behalf.

Recent advancements in AI have only recently made it possible to automate tasks and create agents that can manage these jobs in an empathetic and compassionate manner, said Viviane Ghaderi, Eazewell’s tech chief and a former Amazon executive.

Stephen Stokols, an Eazewell investor and CEO of Tru Skye Ventures, an early-stage sports technology and wellness venture firm, said these “transformational” AI advancements helping bring the funeral industry out of the “dark ages” initially drew him to the project.

Walker said he hopes Eazewell can offer users the tools to navigate a topic that is not taught in school or early life.

“We know how important it is to have someone by your side to help with the details that come after a loss,” Westbrook said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The S&P 500 ($SPX) wrapped up Tuesday just below its intraday midpoint and posted one of the narrowest ranges we’ve seen in the past two months. That’s a clear sign traders are reluctant to take major bets ahead of Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

And honestly, this caution makes sense. If we look back at how the stock market has reacted following the first two FOMC meetings of 2025, there has been a mix of hesitation and sharp moves.

Below is an updated chart marking each FOMC date since 2024 alongside the S&P 500. After the late January meeting, the S&P 500 zig-zagged to marginal new highs over the next two weeks before the first of two sharp down legs unfolded.

FIGURE 1. FOMC DATES SINCE 2024.

Coincidence or not, the S&P 500 is trading at nearly the same price level now, six weeks later, as it was back then. So, how close are today’s prices compared to the close on March 18, the day before the last Fed meeting?

This close (see chart below):

FIGURE 2. THE S&P 500 IS TRADING VERY CLOSE TO LAST FOMC MEETING LEVELS.

The difference is that the index has been rallying for four weeks, starting from the pivot low on April 7, a month ago today. In March, the S&P 500 was trying to bounce after topping four weeks earlier on February 19. That bounce continued for a few more days before dominant down-trending price action took over.

But over the last few weeks, the dominant trend is definitely higher. So the big question now is: can this mini uptrend resume after this pause?

A Short-Term Setup to Watch

A few days ago, the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on the two-hour chart grazed the 70-overbought level for the first time since late January (see chart below). Yes, it took a nearly 18% rally in a very short time frame for it to finally happen, but remember, the indicator was coming off its lowest level since the COVID lows. Modest 3–5% pops were enough to trigger overbought readings for much of 2024. Not this time.

As you know, overbought conditions never persist, especially in very short timeframes like this. However, if this rally has anything left in the tank, we’ll see the indicator hit overbought again soon. That may not happen in the next day or two, but if the market reacts negatively to today’s news, but a bid returns soon after, it could keep some of the bullish patterns we’ve been tracking in play. That’s just one scenario, but one we’ll be closely watching.

FIGURE 3. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500.

Bullish Patterns Still Intact

There are two bullish pattern breakouts still in play on the S&P 500 chart:

And barring a very extreme and negative reaction, the patterns will stay alive today, as well.

FIGURE 4. INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS AND CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERNS.

FIGURE 5. INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

FIGURE 6. CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

A Bright Spot: Utilities

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) was the first sector ETF (and one of the first of all the ETFs we track) to notch a new 50-day high, which it hit on Tuesday. On the weekly chart, it’s clear the ETF is now trying to leverage a multi-month bottoming formation.

This is especially notable because the formation has developed above two bullish pattern breakouts from 2024. Ironically, XLU’s first major breakout of 2024 happened around this time last year (late April), which set the stage for an extremely strong run, at least through late November.

The current snapback is important to watch, given how well XLU has recently capitalized on bullish breakouts. Some upside follow-through from here would also put the former highs back in the crosshairs.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLU).

Invesco Solar (TAN) Still Has Work to Do

Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has been rallying since the April lows, much like nearly every ETF we track. On the daily chart, it’s been trying to leverage a bullish cup and handle pattern, a formation we’ve also seen emerge in many other areas. It’s coming off an extremely oversold condition, with its 14-week RSI undercutting 30 for just the third time since 2021. So TAN could see some additional upside from here.

But the ETF will need to do much more to materially improve its long-term technical picture. Nearly every rally has stalled near the key weekly moving averages, all of which continue to slope lower. Selling strength in TAN has been a highly effective strategy since it peaked in early 2021.

FIGURE 8. WEEKLY CHART OF INVESCO SOLAR ETF (TAN).

Bitcoin Holding Up

Bitcoin has held its breakout from two weeks ago quite well so far. The next upside target remains near 103k. Again, regardless of whether or not you follow crypto, seeing the bid continue is a bullish sign for risk appetite across different asset classes, especially equities.

Fun fact: Bitcoin topped a few weeks before the SPX, so it can be a useful leading indicator.

FIGURE 9. BITCOIN BREAKS OUT.

Ethereum Playing Catch-Up

While Ethereum’s extreme relative weakness vs. Bitcoin has continued, it too has rallied over the last few weeks. It’s now close to breaking out from a cup with handle formation. At the same time, it’s testing its now flat 50-day moving average.

The combination of a bullish breakout and a move through the 50-day moving average produced a very strong follow-through rally in November, something Ethereum will try to replicate.

FIGURE 10. ETHEREUM BREAKS ABOVE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE.

Final Thoughts

As we head into the Fed decision, we’re seeing a lot of cautious optimism in the charts. Key bullish patterns are still holding, sectors like Utilities are showing strength, and crypto is flashing green.

The next few sessions will be important. If we get a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed, but buyers step in quickly it could set the stage for the next leg higher in this rally.

Stay alert.



Frank Cappelleri is the founder and president of CappThesis, an independent technical analysis newsletter firm. Previously, Frank spent 25 years on Wall Street, working for Instinet, the equity arm of Nomura and Smith Barney. Frank’s various roles included being an equity sales trader, technical analyst, research sales specialist and desk strategist. Frank holds the CFA and CMT designations and is a CNBC contributor.

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With all eyes and ears on this week’s Fed meeting, it’s worth taking a big step back to reflect on conditions related to momentum, breadth, and leadership.  And while the rally of the early April lows has been significant, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 now face considerable resistance at the 200-day moving average.

With that backdrop in mind, here are three charts we’re watching that have not yet signaled an “all clear” for risk assets.

Our Market Trend Model Remains Medium-Term Bearish

Long-time market newsletter author Paul Montgomery used to point out that the most bullish thing the market can do is go up. The way we make this simple assessment of market trend is using our Market Trend Model.

As of last Friday’s close, our Market Trend Model shows a short-term bullish signal, given the strength off the early April low. The medium-term model, however, remains bearish, as the recent bounce is still defined as a bear market rally. If the S&P 500 can push above its own 200-day moving average, that would likely be enough to move the medium-term model to the bullish side for the first time since October 2023.

Over the years, I’ve found the Market Trend Model to be a fantastic way of separating the short-term “flickering ticks” of day-to-day market movements from the more significant shifts in sentiment from bullish to bearish. And by staying on the right side of this model, I’ve been able to capture most of the market upside, and more importantly, avoid disastrous bear phases!


Don’t miss our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT. We’ll track how these charts evolve through the course of the week, highlight key stocks on the move, and boil down the most important market themes from a technical perspective. Join us live every trading day at 5pm ET, or catch the replay on our YouTube channel!


Will Key Stocks Breakout Above the 200-Day?

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are testing their own 200-day moving averages, many S&P 500 members are in a very similar position. At the April 2025 market low, less than 10% of the S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving average. That reading has reached almost 60% this week as literally half of the S&P 500 members have regained this short-term moving average.

While the bottom panel shows the percent of stocks above the 50-day moving average, the next panel up displays the percent of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average. While this has also increased over the last month, it still remains below 50%.

The countertrend rally in March 2025 saw this indicator go up to 50% and then reverse lower, providing a warning sign of further lows to come. Will we see a similar stall in this indicator in May 2025? If so, that could indicate a retest of the April low. On the other hand, if both of these gauges push above 50%, then investors should brace for much further upside for the S&P 500.

Offense Needs to Dominate Defense

Leadership themes could become incredibly important, as many leading growth stocks remain in a position of technical weakness. And unless the top growth stocks go into full rally mode, it’s hard to imagine meaningful upside for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. One way to consider this relationship is to chart the ratio between Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.

The top panel shows the cap-weighted sector ETFs, and the bottom panel shows the same ratio using equal-weighted sector ETFs. Both of these ratios made a major peak in Q1 2025, and both of them trended lower into a mid-April low. Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen a dramatic upside reversal in these offense-defense rations, indicating a rotation from defensive to offensive positioning.

Quite simply, I don’t see the major averages pushing higher unless these ratios continue to gain ground to the upside. We have observed strength in some Consumer Staples names, from Kroger (KR) to Coca Cola (KO), but it would take charts like Amazon (AMZN) making a significant move higher to give the S&P 500 any real chance of pushing above its own 200-day moving average. This ratio moving higher would confirm that “things you want” are outperforming “things you need”, and that has bullish implications for risk assets.

Investors are facing more uncertainty than ever as we brace for the latest Fed announcement, the newest tariff headline, and mixed results in the form of economic indicators. By watching charts like these, and keeping a watchful eye on the updated Market Summary page, StockCharts users can approach these markets with confidence.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.